Proof
: the art and science of certainty by Adam Kucharski, (2025) 357 pp
Kucharski uses
an enlightening set of anecdotes and historical examples to reveal the complex
combination of factors that go into knowing what we know. An epidemiologist in
the UK, Kucharski was caught in the maelstrom of the Covid epidemic and was impelled
to make decisions based on sometimes contradictory and constantly changing
evidence. He proves his bone fides explaining the complexity of determining the
efficacy of a medical procedure, vaccine, or medicine. Those that get hives
thinking about math, statistics and all things uber rational will thank the
author for his clear explanations and insights. Whether explaining Abraham
Lincoln’s embrace of Euclid’s proofs in debating Senator Stephens, or the more
arcane reasoning (and math) behind confidence intervals, Kucharski delivers. The
book is a strong antidote to the seemingly endless barrage of lies, damn lies
and statistics that bombard us daily. The real beauty of this work is the feeling
(Eureka moment?) that comes with a glimpse of ever-present complexity and the elusive
nature of certainty.
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