Turchin, a scholar in ecology and evolutionary biology, has a cross-disciplinary approach to the study of history which he labels “cliodynamics”. In a nutshell, the author is analyzing history using a large historical dataset to identify patterns. The author presents a variety of anecdotes from ancient times to the present using the concepts of out-of-control “wealth pumps”, overproduction of elites, and general immiseration; leading to instability, revolution, civil war and all things unpleasant. But I kept thinking, isn’t he neglecting too many variables and what confounding factors make this a fool’s errand? Nonetheless he forges a cogent argument that vast inequalities are destabilizing and, most interestingly, he posits that an overproduction of elites is just as threatening. Recommended to readers with a passion for history and those who appreciate novel approaches to complex and chaotic problems.
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